The panelists participating were Read moreHarm Grobrügge, Vice President European Biogas Association, Stephan Kamphues, Managing Director, Vier Gas Transport GmbH, Frode Leversund, CEO, GASSCO AS and Ulrich Lissek, Head of Communications, Nordstream 2 AG. The panel delivered a credible message that ‘gas can green’: While fossil natural gas would substantially contribute to reduce CO2 reductions up to ~ 70% decarbonization levels, a multitude of technical options for green gas needed beyond 70% decarbonization were discussed. They ranged from e.g. bio-methane over hydrogen-blending towards future deliveries of hydrogen from Norway and Russia. Moreover, the power-to-gas technology was emphasized together with the ability of the gas infrastructure to ‘store’ otherwise ‘lost’ (through curtailment at times of ‘overproduction’) green power in large quantities over long periods of time.

Wolfgang had the honor of being invited to contribute to the third edition of the ‘Global Gas Security Review 2018’ (‘GGSR’) of the International Energy Agency (‘IEA’). The first edition of the GGSR was issued in 2016 giving credence to the fact that the gas market was increasingly turning global. It has meanwhile established itself as a useful complement to the periodical World Energy Outlook. The GGSR 2018 was released on 22 October 2018 during the LNG Producer Consumer Conference in Nagoya. The full issue of the GGSR 2018 can be found at https://webstore.iea.org/global-gas-security-review-2018.

Wolfgang attended the ‘German-Polish Energy Dialogue’ organized by the ‘Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik’ (SWP)’ and ‘The Polish Institute of International Affairs’ (‘PISM’). He delivered a presentation titled: ’Gas and the Energy Union – Roads ahead – Four Observations on the Polish Gas Market’. He reiterated the most relevant findings in GVC’s recent study on the Polish gas market. Read moreDespite ample opportunity to equalize prices of the Polish wholesale market for gas with those on the Northwest-European hubs, spreads of up 3 €/MWh prevailed. Poland availed of 5 independent sources of supply, while the 4 non-Russian sources exceeded Polish domestic demand by 17%. This calls the alleged dependency on Russia into question, not least since Poland exceeded its minimum take obligation by ~9% in 2017. The Baltic pipe project was ignoring the benefits of entry/exit, by which Norwegian gas landing at Dornum/Germany could be brought to Poland for a few €ct/MWh. The lock-up of the wholesale market also negatively affected conditions on the retail market. An effort was made to convince the Polish colleagues of the benefits of market integration.

Wolfgang attended the ‘Expert Talks’ organized by the ‘Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik’ and the ‘World Energy Council’. He delivered a presentation titled: ’Gas and the Energy Union – Roads ahead   – Three Observations’. He described the development of the European gas market as ‘more than meets the eye’ in terms of hub pricing proliferation and correlation. Read moreHis second observation was that there were ‘Disbelieving Thomases’: E.g. parts of the European Commission, who had helped to bring the market advancements about, were not believing in the very same market forces now at work, as e.g. the opposition against Nordstream 2 demonstrates. A further category of disbelievers were certain Central European governments. Last but not least, gas was all too quickly put in the dirty fossil corner, while it was stepping in the breach e.g. when wind and solar production failed (‘Kalte Dunkelflaute’).

His presentation picks up on three points: gas as underrated climate savior, gas wrongly put in the ‘dirty fossil corner’ hinging on ideology and gas engulfed in geopolitics. Despite the high proliferation Germany has not achieved the targeted CO2 reductions but could if more gas were deployed in the power, heat and transport sectors. Read moreGas plays a triple role in the face of highly intermittent solar and wind production: as ‘permanent synchronizer, as provider of peak power demand and as supplier of significant quantities of power during ‘Kalte Dunkelflaute’. Geopolitics e.g. in opposition to the Nordstream 2 pipeline is capable of endangering security of supply in the face of declining indigenous production. U.S. LNG as a permanent replacement of Russian gas would mean for Europe to compete with Asian prices to the detriment of consumers.

Wolfgang attended the „Berlin Seminar on Energy and Climate Policy“ (BSEC): Gas Transit through Ukraine – Discussing Ways Forward, organized by the ‘Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik’. The event featured high ranking speakers e.g. from German ministries and, from the U.S., Edward C. Chow, Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS. The obvious subject predominantly discussed was whether it was advisable to block the Nordstream 2 pipeline project in order to retain transit business for the Ukraine.Read more The majority of speakers expressed skepticism whether Ukraine’s transit system could, after decades of corruption and neglect, be relied on to carry the rising Russian import quantities needed in the face of declining indigenous production. On the other hand, there was consensus that there was a business case for Ukrainian future transit. Wolfgang pointed out in his intervention that, in winter 2017/2018, Russian import pipelines had been used at maximum capacity and there was space for more. He also emphasized that the repeated ‘political rangling’ about average annual ‘volume quotas’ was a fallacy: transport should be looked at in terms of peak capacity needed and here Ukraine had a role to play even after the completion of Nordstream 2.

GVC (along with its co-shareholders) divested its shares in Energy Match Spółka z ograniczoną odpowiedzialnością, a limited liability company under the laws of Poland and hence exited the Polish market. Wolfgang’s frustrated comment: “In my study on the Polish gas market, I qualified the Polish retail market as a commercial ‘no-go area’. GVC’s divestment is the living proof of this.” Financial details concerning the divestment cannot be disclosed.

Note: The link to Energy Match under ‘Affiliations’ has been removed.