Wolfgang attended the „Berlin Seminar on Energy and Climate Policy“ (BSEC): Gas Transit through Ukraine – Discussing Ways Forward, organized by the ‘Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik’. The event featured high ranking speakers e.g. from German ministries and, from the U.S., Edward C. Chow, Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS. The obvious subject predominantly discussed was whether it was advisable to block the Nordstream 2 pipeline project in order to retain transit business for the Ukraine.Read more The majority of speakers expressed skepticism whether Ukraine’s transit system could, after decades of corruption and neglect, be relied on to carry the rising Russian import quantities needed in the face of declining indigenous production. On the other hand, there was consensus that there was a business case for Ukrainian future transit. Wolfgang pointed out in his intervention that, in winter 2017/2018, Russian import pipelines had been used at maximum capacity and there was space for more. He also emphasized that the repeated ‘political rangling’ about average annual ‘volume quotas’ was a fallacy: transport should be looked at in terms of peak capacity needed and here Ukraine had a role to play even after the completion of Nordstream 2.

GVC (along with its co-shareholders) divested its shares in Energy Match Spółka z ograniczoną odpowiedzialnością, a limited liability company under the laws of Poland and hence exited the Polish market. Wolfgang’s frustrated comment: “In my study on the Polish gas market, I qualified the Polish retail market as a commercial ‘no-go area’. GVC’s divestment is the living proof of this.” Financial details concerning the divestment cannot be disclosed.

Note: The link to Energy Match under ‘Affiliations’ has been removed.

Further on day 2, Wolfgang participated in a panel and delivered a speech: “The Global Context for European Gas Contracts and Pricing’. He picked up once more on the significant share of Russian supplies into Germany entirely correlated to TTF pricing and that it mattered how a receiving market would treat supplies as to price formation. In this context, he also made some critical observations about certain Central-European states, where the lack of political will Read more and not alleged Russian dependency was the real reason for their markets lacking integration into the European traded markets. Poland was mentioned as a particularly striking case of putting up entry barriers hampering free cross-border trade.

Wolfgang attends the ‘4^th Washington Oil & Gas Forum 2018’ organized by ‘U.S. Energy Stream’ (www.usenergystream.com) in Washington, on 6-7 June 2018. It should be noted that GVC and U.S. Energy Stream have a cooperation agreement with GVC i.a. supporting U.S. Energy Stream as ‘knowledge partner’.

Wolfgang delivered one of the keynote speeches on day 1: ‘Some (not so) Frequently Asked Questions about the European natural gas market’.

Given the venue of the conference, with a considerable number of speakers and participants from the U.S. including high-ranking members of the U.S. State Department, a central mission of the presentation was to explain and demonstrate the evolution of the European gas markets since the Ukrainian gas crisis in 2009 and clarify potential misperceptions, not least regarding concerns about Russian dependency. Read more

Wolfgang attends the seminar ‘The Ukrainian-Russian gas dispute – Implications for Western Europe’, organized by law firm Wikborg Rein and Ukrainian Naftogaz in Oslo, 31 May 2018:

The seminar, by personal invitation only, featured high level representatives including e.g. the CEO of Naftogaz, Mr. Andriy Kobolyev. Mr. Dag Mjaaland, Lead Counsel for Naftogaz and ‘partner in charge’ at Wikborg Rein, gave Read more a comprehensive summary of the 2 complex arbitrations. Besides further contributions, a panel on the ‘pros and cons’ of Nordstream 2 engaged in partly highly emotional, controversial discussions. Wolfgang made several interventions strictly on gas economical facts only, such as the existence of a global gas market with destination flexible LNG operating essentially as a ‘cap’ on the maximum achievable price of pipeline suppliers, the subsequent re-definition of security of supply away from a regional to a global level and the underestimated future total import requirement of Europe, according to the IEA 390 bcm/a in 2040. He also pointed out that Naftogaz could, in the face of further rising Russian supplies to Europe, expect future transit business irrespective of new-built import pipelines.

The panelists of the second panel (The Future of Midstream Gas & Utilities) were Read more Ignacio de Aguirre, Head of Strategy, Gas Natural, Dieter Helm, Fellow, New College Oxford and Pierre Vergerio, Executive Vice President, Energy Management & Optimization, Edison.

Wolfgang delivers a keynote speech at the ‘3^rd International Conference of the Hellenic Association for Energy Economics’ in Athens, on 4 May 2018: “Gas Supply & Demand Dynamics: Pipelines and LNG” and moderates the respective panel with the same title.

Whilst the projected substantial growth in natural gas demand occurs elsewhere in the world, European gas demand is frequently underestimated (and the remaining level of indigenous production overestimated). E.g. the IEA, in its WEO 2017, Read more projects European demand essentially flat but sees a rising total import need of some 390 bcm/a by 2040. Hence, it appears advisable to encourage all manner of supply import aspirations, by both pipeline gas and LNG. Wolfgang points out once more the availability of destination flexible LNG responding to price signals operates like a ‘cap’ on the maximum achievable price for pipeline suppliers. At the same time, the volume pressure of abundant pipeline supplies keeps traded prices low and LNG (on a more permanent basis) mostly out.