This section encompasses a wide range of GVC related information:
- “Interview” covers both face-to-face interviews and quotations in third party articles.
- “Publications” includes articles, papers and studies.
Wolfgang was interviewed for and quoted in an article titled ‘Lukaschenko droht EU mit Blockade von Gaslieferungen – Experten geben Entwarnung’
(Lukaschenko threatens EU with blocking gas supplies – experts rule out the ability of such) by Jan Emendörfer of Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND), published on the RND website https://www.rnd.de/politik/belarus-polen-grenzkonflikt-lukaschenko-droht-eu-mit-blockade-von-gaslieferungen-AMB3EHX2SRBQ3COA6LODC2C4AE.html.
Wolfgang clarified that the belarusian section of the Yamal-pipeline is owned by Gazprom. Moreover, it is operated by Gazprom Transgaz Belarus, which is also owned by Gazprom. Hence, an interference in the Russian gas flows was only possible by breach of international law.
Wolfgang was interviewed for and quoted in an article titled ‘Russia Keeps Europe Guessing With Tight Gas Supplies; Moscow increased deliveries, sending prices lower, but it is too soon to say if it will send enough to avoid a winter energy shortage’ by Joe Wallace, an American journalist, published in the Wall Street Journal.
I.a., Wolfgang pointed out that, while more Russian gas would probably lessen the volatility of the European gas market prices currently seen, but would not be enough to calm the global market.
Wolfgang was interviewed by the Brussels based ARD journalist Michael Grytz for a news commentary titled ‘Hohe Strom- und Gaspreise – Keine Einigung der EU-Energieminister’. The commentary was broadcasted in the ARD Tagesschau, one of the major German news channels, on 26 October 2021.
Various of Wolfgang’s statements were included in the broadcast. I.a. he explained that, while the gas price spike would be temporary, the extremely elevated power prices would very likely remain high and continue to feature extreme volatility. The major reason was the ‘Energiewende’: Read more While demand was significantly increased i.a. by e-mobility, heat pumps and electrolysis, the offer was reduced by shutting down nuclear as well as coal-fired power generation. Price volatility would be exacerbated by adding more non-dispatchable wind- and solar generation capacity.
Wolfgang was invited to deliver a second podcast for and recorded by the ‘Deutsch-Russische Außenhandelskammer’ (German-Russian Chamber of Commerce, ‘AHK’) titled ‘Gaspreis: Warum ist er so hoch? – Nord Stream 2 könnte den Markt beruhigen’ (Gas prices: Why are they so high? Nord Stream 2 could calm the market).
The podcast (in German language) can be accessed at the website of the AHK via the following link: https://podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/gaspreis-warum-ist-er-so-hoch-gast-dr-wolfgang-peters/id1544607418?i=1000539515142
At the website of the AHK the podcast is advertised as shown below and also points – besides the above apple-link – to other, perhaps more suitable links.
In the podcast, Wolfgang explained i.a.:
The recent exponential rise in wholesale gas prices (world-wide and European) triggered a ‘shitstorm’ of conspiracy theories accusing Russia of ‘withholding gas supplies to Europe’, thereby pushing up prices. The proponents are ignorant of the fact that Europe is part of a meanwhile existing global gas market. Due to the global LNG-trade, price-correlations exist between Asia, Latin America and Europe. Hence, distortions in one region will affect also other regions, including Europe.
The existence of a global gas market also means that dependency on Russia no longer exists. It is outright hypocrisy that the very opponents of Nord Stream 2, who ignored the global gas market in order to be able to continue opposing it, are now the ones accusing Russia of manipulating the traded gas markets. Read more
There is consensus amongst experts that the gas price hike will be temporary: global gas reserves could, theoretically, last for the next 200 years. In contrast, the power price levels, also elevated towards unprecedented new highs, are ‘systemic’: By radically diminishing the offer side (e.g. retiring nuclear and coal) and, at the same time, significantly increasing demand (heat pumps, e-mobility, electrolysis etc), a price rise is economically inevitable.
Heide/Friedrichskoog, 21.10. and 04.11.2021
Wolfgang delivered a reader’s comment in response to an article titled ‘Betriebserlaubnis für Nord Stream 2: EU degradiert sich selbst.’ (Operating permit for Nord Stream 2: EU is degrading itself).
The journalist Mrs. Becke opined that the EU had degraded itself by permitting Nord Stream 2 against Polish resistance. Wolfgang rebutted that the EU had indeed degraded itself by changing the Third Gas Directive such it now also applied to import pipelines from non-EU-countries. This at a time when all permits had already been granted and billions had been invested. By forcing Nord Stream 2 to now grant third party access at the bottom of the sea, the EU has degraded itself by misusing regulation as a geopolitical weapon.
Wolfgang was interviewed by the Brussels based ARD journalist Michael Grytz for a news commentary titled ‘EU will steigendem Erdgaspreis entgegenwirken’. The commentary was broadcasted in the ARD Tagesschau, one of the major German news channels, on 23 September 2021. Unfortunately, the video is not available.
Various of Wolfgang’s statements were included in the broadcast. I.a. he explained that the price surge had to do with several aspects of the global gas market, ranging from surging LNG demand in Asia towards an unusually high level of ‘unplanned outages’ on the supply side.
Wolfgang was interviewed for and quoted in an article titled ‘Gaspreise – Ist Russland schuld? – Die Gaspreise gehen durch die Decke – und einige Experten sehen die Ursache in Putins Geopolitik. Doch es gibt andere Gründe für den Preisanstieg.’ (Gas Prices – Is Russia to be blamed? – Gas prices go through the roof – and some experts consider this the result of Putin’s geopolitics. However, there are other reasons.’), by Klaus Stratmann, a German journalist of the leading German business newspaper Handelsblatt.
Wolfgang was prominently quoted several times, i.a.stating that:
- In the face of the current price action, the existence of a global gas market can no longer be denied. Hence, the assertions of dependency on Russia, still brought forward by Nord Stream 2 opponents, can no longer be upheld.
- The market tightness arising since 4Q’20 is hinging on both ‘out of the ordinary’ supply constraints and demand spikes.
On the demand side, earlier recovery of the Asian economy and a harsh winter causing problems on the power side (e.g. in Japan and China) boosted LNG demand. In summer, droughts e.g. in Brazil and Turkey curtailed hydro-power generation causing a massive demand pull for LNG (Brazil) and also piped gas (Turkey, from Russia i.a. via Turkstream).
Long-term contracts (albeit no longer oil-indexed, but predominantly hub-indexed) still constitute the majority of Russian supplies to Europe. They feature a buyers’ nomination right and thus cannot be (mis-) used to withhold volumes.
According to the IEA, the supply/demand tightness will relax in the second half of 2022 and so will prices.