While even the new minister of the economy from the green party, who is opposed to the project, stated that the certification process will follow the rule of law, additional time delay arose recently: Somewhat surprising even for many experts, the amended Third Gas Directive, transposed into German law, requires that an independent transmission operator (ITO) for Nord Stream 2 must reside in Germany. We have previously qualified the amendment as a discriminatory ‘Lex Nord Stream 2’ (https://gasvaluechain.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2020-04-28-GVC-Paper-Nord-Stream-2-Hypocrisy.pdf), since it affected only this project and at a time, when all permits by five states had been granted and billions had already been invested. The surprise requirement to have the ITO reside in Germany turns out to be another point of discrimination: E.g. the three Norwegian import pipelines beaching Germany are operated by the Norwegian company Gasco. And even Nord Stream 1 is operated by the Zug-based Nord Stream AG.

Nord Stream 2 AG had already applied for the ITO status a while back. Now, it needs to establish a German subsidiary and transfer asset ownership of the part of the pipeline within the German 12 sea miles zone. Meanwhile, the German regulator has stopped the clock on the certification procedure. This delay could bring Nord Stream 2 operability well into the middle of the year 2022.

As to American sanctions Read morethe recent Merkel/Biden accord envisioning extended Ukainian transit beyond 2024 is a ‘best efforts’ commitment at best, since Germany cannot dictate Russia with whom to conclude which contracts. Despite the accord, American resistance is not over, however, the tides may be turning: In the face to exponentially rising gas prices also at the Henry Hub, there is a rising number of political voices calling for a reduction of U.S. LNG exports.

Wolfgang was interviewed for and quoted in an article titled ‘Nord Stream 2 certification hits international and political roadblocks’ by Diane Elijah, an energy expert from ICIS, published in ICIS Gas In Focus (GIF 28.22 of 21 December 2021), the leading gas industry report with an established audience of executives, analysts and traders since 1994.

One of the issues contemplated in the article is whether the contracting of Ukrainian transit beyond 2024 could become a condition for the certification of Nord Stream 2. Wolfgang pointed out that Germany’s statement to support such in the recent Merkel/Biden accord is a ‘best efforts’ clause at best, since neither Germany nor anybody else are in the position to dictate Russia with whom to conclude contracts.

Wolfgang was interviewed for and quoted in an article titled ‘Lukaschenko droht EU mit Blockade von Gaslieferungen – Experten geben Entwarnung’

(Lukaschenko threatens EU with blocking gas supplies – experts rule out the ability of such) by Jan Emendörfer of Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND), published on the RND website https://www.rnd.de/politik/belarus-polen-grenzkonflikt-lukaschenko-droht-eu-mit-blockade-von-gaslieferungen-AMB3EHX2SRBQ3COA6LODC2C4AE.html.

Wolfgang clarified that the belarusian section of the Yamal-pipeline is owned by Gazprom. Moreover, it is operated by Gazprom Transgaz Belarus, which is also owned by Gazprom. Hence, an interference in the Russian gas flows was only possible by breach of international law.

Wolfgang was interviewed for and quoted in an article titled ‘Russia Keeps Europe Guessing With Tight Gas Supplies; Moscow increased deliveries, sending prices lower, but it is too soon to say if it will send enough to avoid a winter energy shortage’ by Joe Wallace, an American journalist, published in the Wall Street Journal.

I.a., Wolfgang pointed out that, while more Russian gas would probably lessen the volatility of the European gas market prices currently seen, but would not be enough to calm the global market.

Wolfgang was interviewed by the Brussels based ARD journalist Michael Grytz for a news commentary titled ‘Hohe Strom- und Gaspreise – Keine Einigung der EU-Energieminister’. The commentary was broadcasted in the ARD Tagesschau, one of the major German news channels, on 26 October 2021.

Various of Wolfgang’s statements were included in the broadcast. I.a. he explained that, while the gas price spike would be temporary, the extremely elevated power prices would very likely remain high and continue to feature extreme volatility. The major reason was the ‘Energiewende’: Read more  While demand was significantly increased i.a. by e-mobility, heat pumps and electrolysis, the offer was reduced by shutting down nuclear as well as coal-fired power generation. Price volatility would be exacerbated by adding more non-dispatchable wind- and solar generation capacity.

Wolfgang was invited to deliver a second podcast for and recorded by the ‘Deutsch-Russische Außenhandelskammer’ (German-Russian Chamber of Commerce, ‘AHK’) titled ‘Gaspreis: Warum ist er so hoch? – Nord Stream 2 könnte den Markt beruhigen’ (Gas prices: Why are they so high? Nord Stream 2 could calm the market).

The podcast (in German language) can be accessed at the website of the AHK via the following link: https://podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/gaspreis-warum-ist-er-so-hoch-gast-dr-wolfgang-peters/id1544607418?i=1000539515142

At the website of the AHK the podcast is advertised as shown below and also points – besides the above apple-link – to other, perhaps more suitable links.

In the podcast, Wolfgang explained i.a.:

The recent exponential rise in wholesale gas prices (world-wide and European) triggered a ‘shitstorm’ of conspiracy theories accusing Russia of ‘withholding gas supplies to Europe’, thereby pushing up prices. The proponents are ignorant of the fact that Europe is part of a meanwhile existing global gas market. Due to the global LNG-trade, price-correlations exist between Asia, Latin America and Europe. Hence, distortions in one region will affect also other regions, including Europe.

The existence of a global gas market also means that dependency on Russia no longer exists. It is outright hypocrisy that the very opponents of Nord Stream 2, who ignored the global gas market in order to be able to continue opposing it, are now the ones accusing Russia of manipulating the traded gas markets. Read more

Wolfgang delivered a reader’s comment in response to an article titled ‘Betriebserlaubnis für Nord Stream 2: EU degradiert sich selbst.’ (Operating permit for Nord Stream 2: EU is degrading itself).

The journalist Mrs. Becke opined that the EU had degraded itself by permitting Nord Stream 2 against Polish resistance. Wolfgang rebutted that the EU had indeed degraded itself by changing the Third Gas Directive such it now also applied to import pipelines from non-EU-countries. This at a time when all permits had already been granted and billions had been invested. By forcing Nord Stream 2 to now grant third party access at the bottom of the sea, the EU has degraded itself by misusing regulation as a geopolitical weapon.